The world really is more unpredictable: what the risk chiefs at Volkswagen and the WTO say
Armed conflicts, cyberattacks and natural disasters that halt production thousands of kilometers away are no longer exceptions in the news. That perception was confirmed by the chief risk officers of Volkswagen and the World Trade Organization (WTO), who said, on a World Economic Forum podcast, that the world is more unpredictable than it used to be.
The conversation was recorded live on October 8 for the Radio Davos program, with Torben Oeder, Volkswagen's global chief risk officer, and Natasha Fields, the WTO's chief ethics, risk and compliance officer. Below are the points most relevant to anyone running a company of any size.
Risks no longer occur in isolation
Geopolitics, supply chains, disinformation, climate and artificial intelligence no longer fit into separate lists. A conflict raises energy prices, energy raises costs, and costs put pressure on credit. Risk management must therefore consider the full set of connections, not each risk on its own.
Weak signals, big problems
Some risks can be measured using history and probability. Others show up through discreet signals: a regulatory change in another country, an atypical market movement, a supplier alert. The challenge is to pick up these signals early and tell them apart from noise. Those who do this well do not predict the future, but are the first to identify the problem.
Artificial intelligence supports, but the decision is human
Both executives treat artificial intelligence as an ally: it processes large volumes of data, recognizes patterns, flags anomalies and speeds up scenario building. Interpreting the results, deciding what to do and answering for the decision, however, remains the responsibility of people, and ethical judgment cannot be delegated to an algorithm.
There is another point of attention: not using AI has also become a risk, because those who use it gain speed. On the other hand, using it without criteria opens new fronts of exposure, such as information security and data protection.
Efficiency and resilience
Companies tend to seek lean, standardized, low-cost processes. With no margin of slack at all, however, any shock can turn into a crisis. The executives do not propose choosing between efficiency and resilience, but continuously asking "what if?". In practice, this may mean keeping a second supplier for critical items, even at a somewhat higher cost, or bringing production and sourcing closer to the consumer market to reduce dependence on long, fragile chains.
Since resilience has a cost, the decision must be well grounded: the investment is justified where the likelihood of the risk materializing outweighs the expense.
Climate risks are still underestimated
In the Forum's Global Risks Report, climate change and extreme weather lead the list over a ten-year horizon. In the short term, other topics draw more attention. For both executives, environmental risks remain underestimated, above all because of knock-on effects: a climate phenomenon can affect food and water prices, political stability and economic cycles. For companies, this means including water availability, energy consumption and supplier locations in the risk analysis, rather than limiting the topic to the sustainability report.
What the private sector and international bodies can learn from each other
Companies usually have more resources, structured risk management earlier and react faster. International bodies, in turn, must build decisions among many countries, which makes processes slower, although they are evolving. For the WTO, the main systemic risk is the fragmentation of the global economy. At Volkswagen, the routine includes tracking geopolitics, regulation and the market, with impact analyses carried out right after each event rather than only in the quarterly report. Both agree on one point: exchanging information and good practices improves the identification of emerging risks for everyone.
Volkswagen's perspective on sustainability
An interview with Dirk Voeste, the carmaker's sustainability director, published by Estadão on October 28, 2026, based on a New York Times report, offers another angle. According to him, sustainability only has value when it is built into daily operations, with lower costs, less dependence on raw materials and more reuse of parts. He also mentions the strategy of producing and developing locally, which is consistent with the risk chief's view. Risk, sustainability and business are therefore part of the same agenda.
Unpredictable does not mean without a way out
Despite the scenario, both executives ended the episode on an optimistic note. Well-conducted risk management is not only about avoiding losses: it allows companies to identify opportunities amid uncertainty and to get ahead of those who still react only after the problem appears.
Questions for your company
Six questions to guide a first assessment:
- Which five risks are most likely to interrupt operations, and how are they related?
- Does the company identify early signals, or only learn of the problem once it materializes?
- Which suppliers and inputs are critical and have no alternative?
- Does the risk analysis consider climate, water, energy and social issues, or only the financial aspect?
- Are data and technology used to broaden the view of risks, with people responsible for interpreting the results?
- Does leadership know which indicators are tracked and why?
If the answer to most questions is negative or uncertain, a risk diagnosis is a good starting point.
Talk to KICK
KICK Group supports companies in turning uncertainty into planning, with risk analysis, materiality, indicators, goals and ESG reporting, including through the B.KICK platform. Get in touch to talk about your business's risks.
Write to contato@kickgroup.com.br. Main source: Radio Davos, World Economic Forum, an episode of the Forum's Strategic Intelligence program. Further reading: the reports "Risk Management Reimagined" and "Global Risks Report 2026".